Amazon Rainforest Nears Tipping Point, Scientist Warns

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Brazilian climate scientist Carlos Nobre gives a warning that the Amazon rainforest is dangerously close to a climate tipping point. The dangerous precedent comes as a result of Amazon rainforest deforestation for palm oil, soy and meat along with gold mining and organised crime.

If 20-25% of the forest is lost, up to 70% could disappear, devastating biodiversity, #climate, and regional agriculture. Immediate action is vital to protect the Amazon and support indigenous-led solutions.

The Guardian (2025, June 26). ‘We are perilously close to the point of no return’: climate scientist on Amazon rainforest’s future. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2025/jun/26/tippping-points-amazon-rainforest-climate-scientist-carlos-nobre

The Amazon perilously close to a rainforest tipping point

The Amazon rainforest, one of the world’s most vital ecosystems, is approaching a climate tipping point that could trigger irreversible transformation, according to leading Brazilian climate scientist Carlos Nobre. Speaking after decades of research, Nobre emphasised that we are at an Amazon tipping point that “perilously close to the point of no return,” with current deforestation levels at 18% and the planet warming by 1.5°C, both nearing the estimated tipping point of 20-25% forest loss or 2.0-2.5°C global heating.

Amazon deforestation a threat to 70% of forests

Nobre, who has worked at Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research and the University of São Paulo, explained that crossing this threshold would turn large parts of the rainforest into degraded savannah, resulting in the loss of up to 70% of the Amazon. Amazon deforestation would have catastrophic consequences for wild animals, local communities, regional weather, and the global climate system. “If we hit the Amazon tipping point, our calculations show we are going to lose 50-70% of the forest. That would release between 200 and 250bn tonnes of carbon dioxide between 2050 and 2100, making it completely impossible to limit global warming to 1.5C,” Nobre stated.

Amazon rainforest diversity is higher than anywhere else on earth

The Amazon’s role is critical: it harbours more terrestrial biodiversity than anywhere else on the planet, regulates monsoon patterns, and supports agriculture across South America. However, the region has experienced record-breaking droughts in recent years, with the dry season now lasting four to five weeks longer and rainfall 20% lower than 45 years ago. In some areas, the minimum rainfall during the dry season is already below 40mm per month, especially where forests have been cleared for cattle ranching and soy plantations.

Rainfall 20% lower than 45 years ago due to deforestation

Nobre highlighted that degraded pastures recycle only a fraction of the water vapour that forests do, worsening drought conditions. “Livestock grazing is a form of ecological pollution. The areas that have been most degraded by pastures are at, or very close to, a tipping point,” he said. The transformation of forest to pastureland reduces rainfall and increases vulnerability to fire, threatening the Amazon’s resilience and biodiversity.

Amazon’s ‘flying rivers’ in the sky under threat

The consequences extend beyond nature. The Amazon’s “flying rivers”—vast flows of water vapour—are essential for rainfall in major agricultural regions across Brazil and neighbouring countries. Without the forest, rainfall in these areas could drop by more than 40%, undermining food security and livelihoods.

98% of Amazon deforestation caused by humans

Nobre also warned of rising threats from organised crime, with more than 98% of recent Amazon fires caused by human activity, including arson linked to illegal logging, mining, and land grabbing. He called for urgent action: “I am worried that we are not acting with sufficient urgency. We now face a climate emergency. I am very, very concerned.”

Nobre and other experts advocate for large-scale reforestation, zero deforestation, and a new bioeconomy based on social biodiversity and indigenous knowledge. While recent Brazilian government efforts have reduced deforestation rates, Nobre stressed that progress must accelerate to avoid disaster. Recent efforts to generate alternatives to palm oil and soy oil for manufacturing and use offer rainforests and wild animals a fighting chance at survival.

The Guardian (2025, June 26). ‘We are perilously close to the point of no return’: climate scientist on Amazon rainforest’s future. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2025/jun/26/tippping-points-amazon-rainforest-climate-scientist-carlos-nobre

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Read more about deforestation and ecocide in the palm oil industry